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Tourism Holdings: The World's Biggest Motorhome Company Is Cleaning Up — And Analysts See 50% Upside

A Bottom-of-Cycle Story with Portfolio Cleanup Attached

Tourism Holdings Limited — known to most of the industry simply as thl — is the world's largest rental motorhome company. You've probably passed one of its vehicles on a state highway without realising it. The brands include Maui, Britz, Apollo, Mighway and Cheapa Campa, operating across New Zealand, Australia, the United States, Canada, the UK and Europe.

It's been a difficult year for the share price. The stock trades around $2.25 NZD after recently touching the mid-$2.10s. The 52-week range runs from $1.28 to $2.75, and management itself described FY25 as "bottom-of-the-cycle." So why are analysts looking at the current price and penciling in a consensus target of $3.14 — roughly 50% upside?

Three reasons: the earnings cycle has inflected, the balance sheet is being cleaned up, and the sub-scale weakest leg has been sold.

1H FY26: The Inflection Arrives

The half-year result released in February 2026 was the clearest evidence that FY25 was the trough:

  • •Revenue: $477.3 million NZD (up 4%)
  • •Services revenue (rentals): $280.1 million (up 11%)
  • •Reported NPAT: $29.6 million (up 17%)
  • •Underlying NPAT: $29.5 million (up 11%)
  • •Operating cash flow: $40.5 million (up 67%)
  • •Interim dividend: 3.0 cps fully imputed (up 20%)

The operating cash flow number is the one that matters most. It's funding debt paydown and lifting the dividend in the same period — which only happens when underlying operations are genuinely improving, not just accounting optics.

Management followed the result with full-year FY26 guidance for underlying NPAT of $43–47 million NZD, versus FY25's $28.7 million. That's a 50% to 65% increase in profit year-on-year if the range is hit. The cycle has turned.

Selling the UK for the Right Reasons

Announced alongside the half-year result: thl has agreed to sell its UK and Ireland operations to Indie Campers (a Portugal-based operator) for roughly $58.3 million NZD. The price breaks down as $51.7 million for net assets plus $8 million of goodwill. A one-off gain of up to $6.8 million is expected, with completion targeted for Q4 FY26.

The UK business was sub-scale, earning a return below the group's target, and management has been clear that capital will be redeployed into NZ and Australia — the markets where thl has real scale advantage. This is the kind of disposal that makes portfolios cleaner rather than weaker, and the market reaction was positive (the stock rallied ~8% post-result).

The Regional Split: Canada Strong, USA Weak, NZ/Australia Carrying

Segment performance in FY26 has been uneven:

  • •Canada: Strong. Forward bookings up more than 30%.
  • •New Zealand and Australia: Solid performers, doing most of the heavy lifting on H1 profit growth.
  • •United States: The drag. International arrivals from thl's core traditional markets are "staying away from the USA," a pattern echoed by American hotels, airlines and peer rental operators.

The US exposure cuts both ways. On the downside, it's the reason FY25 earnings were so weak and why fleet utilisation has been soft. On the upside, the fleet is already in place — if US international arrivals recover, thl captures operating leverage without needing additional capex. That's real optionality embedded in the current share price.

Key Metrics

  • •Share price: ~$2.25 NZD
  • •Market cap: ~$319 million NZD
  • •52-week range: $1.28 – $2.75
  • •P/E (approx on FY25 underlying): ~11x
  • •Implied underlying EPS (FY25): ~$0.19 NZD
  • •FY26 underlying NPAT guidance: $43–47 million NZD
  • •Dividend: 6.5 cps total FY25 + 3.0 cps interim FY26 (fully imputed)
  • •Trailing dividend yield: ~3.3%
  • •Gross capex guidance FY26: $210 million
  • •Analyst consensus target: $3.14 NZD — ~40% upside
  • •Consensus recommendation: Buy / Strong Buy

Four analysts cover the stock, with three Buy ratings and one Hold. That's unusually bullish for a consumer-cyclical NZX name.

What to Watch

  • •UK/Ireland sale completion: Expected Q4 FY26. Confirmation and cash receipt are the trigger for the one-off gain and the capital redeployment story.
  • •US international visitor trends: The swing factor for FY27 and beyond. A recovery would drive utilisation gains on an already-deployed fleet — high-margin revenue.
  • •FY26 full-year result: Hitting the $43–47 million NPAT guidance range would confirm the inflection. Undershooting would reset the narrative.
  • •Net debt trajectory: Flagged as approaching 2x EBITDA. Continued deleveraging is a cleaner balance sheet story; failure would raise questions about the dividend runway.
  • •RV fleet utilisation rates: The key operational metric. Higher utilisation = higher ROFE without capex.

The Bottom Line

Tourism Holdings is a classic "bottom of the cycle with a portfolio cleanup attached" setup. Earnings have inflected and FY26 guidance points to a 50–65% profit rebound. The UK disposal is a disciplined portfolio move rather than a distressed sale, and the proceeds go to higher-return markets. Canada is growing at 30%+ on forward bookings, and the US weakness creates embedded operating leverage if international travel patterns normalise. Against this, the risks are real: US international arrivals may stay soft, the global RV cycle is dependent on consumer discretionary spend, and net debt is still elevated. At $2.25 with analysts targeting $3.14 and a ~3.3% fully-imputed dividend, the risk/reward is genuinely asymmetric — but only for investors willing to hold through a choppy US recovery.

*Disclaimer: This article is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Stock data may not be real-time. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.*